Институт политических исследований при Фонде Т. Усубалиева

Esen Usubaliev.

The main task of the West is to create zones of tension and conflict that will divert the attention and resources of countries that are actively participating in the world transformation.

In January this year, the attention of the world community was riveted on the press conference of Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. With his usual frankness, he spoke not only about the results of Russian diplomacy in 2023, but also recalled its main international political principles, which should be taken into account when analysing Moscow’s foreign policy activities.

In particular, it is obvious that Russia views the West as a completely incapable, unreliable partner and will focus on developing relations «with those who are ready to do so on an equal, mutually beneficial, mutually respectful basis through frank dialogue, negotiations aimed at finding a balance of interests.» Of course, the West cannot be satisfied with the new system of international relations that is being formed by Russia and its closest partners and allies.

The last decade of January was marred by terrorist acts of the AFU against the civilian population of Donetsk and the destruction of a Russian transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war in the suburbs of Belgorod. In other words, Kyiv is «compensating» for the deterioration of the situation on the front with terrorism, which has no military expediency and is aimed solely at intimidation and attracting the attention of the world media. We should not be surprised that Lavrov’s speech at the UN Security Council meeting on the killing of civilians in Donetsk did not provoke any reaction on the part of the United States and European Union countries. This is a manifestation of traditional Western cynicism and disregard for other people’s — «non-European» — lives. It is not for nothing that the idea of the exceptionalism of Western civilization is regaining popularity in the United States and Europe, and that the ideology of neo-Nazism is being encouraged by them in other countries.

Inevitable changes

Slowly but steadily, changes are taking place in the world, leading to the formation of different decision-making centres, which have an increasing influence on global political and economic processes. The emergence of «world leadership centres» alternative to the US and Western countries — Russia, China, India, Iran, other countries and associations (EAEU, BRICS, SCO) — creates quite healthy competition, which pushes states to search for common ground and foundations for cooperation and collaboration.

Unfortunately, in the West, consciously or unconsciously, this competition is perceived as an acute rivalry that inevitably leads to conflict, even though there are no grounds for it. It is not for nothing that a number of officials in the United States and the European Union regularly speak of «threats emanating from Russia,» and the head of NATO’s military committee has called on everyone to prepare for an inevitable war with Russia in the coming decades.

An independent and strong Russia, actively building a new, alternative architecture of global ties, poses an existential threat to the collective West, and it cannot be eliminated directly. The armed conflict in Ukraine, provoked by the West, which should have done this, has, contrary to expectations, led to the strengthening of Russia’s international position, allowing it to involve even more countries in new structures of international co-operation.

Confrontational thinking and the corresponding rhetoric of the West in modern conditions can be seen as a response to the coming changes in the world order, which it is unable to stop, but is trying in every possible way to postpone them. Now its main task is to create zones of tension and conflicts that will divert the attention and resources of countries that are actively participating in the world transformation.

Naturally, for Russia it is Ukraine, potentially the South Caucasus and Central Asia, for China it is the growing tension around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, for Iran it is Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip and US and UK military action in Yemen. If this is not enough, the situation can escalate anywhere on the planet — the global military presence of the US allows it.

«Warmongers»

Israel’s military action in the Gaza Strip, which began in October 2023, can be viewed in different ways — both as an attempt to divert attention from the US and EU failures in Ukraine, and as an intention to provoke Iran to launch military action against it. And also as an attempt to fundamentally resolve the Palestinian issue, burying the chances of creating an independent state. Without ruling out the possibility of the simultaneous realisation of such intentions, let us assume that all of this is part of an even larger plan to completely overhaul not only the legal regime that made Israel’s appearance on the world map possible, but also the entire system of international law. The massacre of civilians in the Gaza Strip continues, and the whole world is powerless to stop it, because the existing norms of international law are effectively paralysed by the policies of the United States, the European Union and the entire Western community that supports Israel.

Last year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stolnberg already said that the alliance would strengthen its partnership with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in view of the challenges posed by China. At the same time, it is absolutely not worth believing the words that the organisation has no plans to expand in Asia — the opening of a NATO office in Japan and the deployment of communication systems with the alliance are being actively discussed. It is not for nothing that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, at a press conference following his participation in the UN Security Council events, noted that the Americans are actively moving the infrastructure of the military bloc to the region.

The growing tension in the Asia-Pacific region will affect not only the interests of Russia and China, but will also affect stability on the Korean Peninsula, especially given the actively developing cooperation between Russia and the DPRK. The region itself is a concentration of the most acute and intractable problems left over from World War II. And this implies not only the tension around the Chinese island of Taiwan, which is artificially fuelled by the US and Japan, but also the status of the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, to which Japan claims. And if we add the strengthening of military ties in the US-South Korea-Japan «triangle», it is not difficult to foresee China’s response to the emergence of threats in the zone of its exclusive national interests. One thing is clear — all this may lead to large-scale changes in the Asia-Pacific region, comparable to the post-war restructuring.

Outlines of future conflicts

The West is forcefully pushing the idea that since the UN institutions and international law are powerless, it is necessary to be guided by new norms and rules that can regulate emerging conflict situations. This is his vision of a «new rules-based world order», which he intends to establish by renewing old conflicts or fuelling new ones. But all confidence rests on the false notion that these conflicts will be resolved either in favour of the West or on its terms.

For a long time now, the world has not perceived Euro-Atlantic hegemony as something indestructible, much less infallible. This suggests that the West will have to adapt to a new reality, which it understands but is not yet able to accept. That is why we can expect intensification of conflicts in different regions of the planet. Unfortunately, Central Asia is also entering the space of potential destabilisation.

Given the peculiarities of our region, the main obstacle for the U.S. and the EU is the existence of close trade, economic, political, cultural, linguistic and educational ties with Russia, the existence of which still causes bewilderment in Western countries (partly because they have not only proved to be stable, but also have the property to persist and deepen). It has not been possible to completely destroy them, and the alternatives are not quite successful, but the West will not stop trying. However, perhaps it is now that states are beginning to realise that the painstaking process of building mechanisms of cooperation and interaction in Eurasia, which has been going on all these years, may be the only guarantee of survival in the face of the many challenges and threats of our time.

Unofficial translation.

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